Shipping data analysis company Sea-Intelligence reported that in the upcoming China National Day Golden Week and its October, it is expected that shipping companies will withdraw more capacity from the market, and the number of canceled voyages will be higher than the historical average.
Sea-Intelligence said: "For a long time, blank navigation has been the preferred way for shipping companies to balance supply and demand, which is what we call tactical air navigation. With the arrival of Golden Week (starting from October 1), shipping companies have the opportunity to cancel more voyages than ever before to cut capacity to support freight rates."
the company noted that for most of 2020 and 2021, shipping companies have struggled to maintain capacity that matches demand. Cargo volumes surged, ports were packed and ships were stuck out of ports, leaving carriers unable to meet their weekly services on time, forcing blank voyages.
However, demand growth has stagnated over the past few months, ships are underutilized and freight rates have continued to fall significantly. With the arrival of Golden Week, it provides an opportunity for carriers to cancel more voyages than ever before, and may be subject to less pressure from cargo owners.
Sea-Intelligence said that's what they're seeing as well, with carriers deploying capacity in the coming weeks. In the trans-Pacific route, the reduction in capacity is expected to be 22%-28% of the weekly deployed capacity in the weeks after Golden Week, compared with 15%-17% in the same period in 2019 and 9%-11% in 2014-2018.
The data Asia-Europe routes are also relatively high, with capacity reductions of slightly less than 20% in the weeks after Golden Week, which is the same as in 2019, but higher than the 2014-2018 average. However, the Asia-Mediterranean route is the only one of the four routes with capacity reductions consistent with 2014-2019.
Last week, Druri also said that it tracked that on October 22, Asia-Europe and Asia-West routes deployed capacity fell sharply year-on-year.
MSC, Maersk, Dafei and other shipping companies recently ship schedule adjustment and voyage cancellation notice summary.
On September 21, MSC issued a notice saying that due to the expected demand slowdown during and after the Golden Week holiday, it plans to cancel the following Asia-Europe routes during this period:
On September 19, MSC notified adjustments to the following Asia to the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast cruises:
MSC has issued a schedule update notice for Asia to Europe routes. In anticipation of a slowdown in demand during and after the Golden Week holidays, MSC plans to cancel the following voyages:
On September 22, Maersk issued a blank voyage notice from Asia to the United States, canceling the voyage details as follows:
For the canceled voyage, Maersk said that Shanghai/Ningbo/Yantian cargo will be transported by TP6 MSC DITTE/MSC ARIANE, TPX RIO CADIZ, and Nansha/Shekou cargo will be transported by the next TP2 voyage.
On September 20,, Maersk issued a notice of change of shipping schedules from Asia to North America. Affected voyages and adjustments are as follows:
Prior to this, Maersk issued a reset and cancellation notice for the Asia to North America voyage. In order to better align its Asia-North America network service plan and respond to demand fluctuations, it will reset or blank the following listed voyages:
The departure port is Shekou Port, and ETD is TP2 eastbound voyage MSC EMANUELA / 240N on October 6, which will be canceled due to delay. The scheduled shipment will be shipped by TP2 MAERSK EINDHOVEN 241N, which will be delayed by two days.
Port of departure is Ningbo Port, ETD is TP3 eastbound voyage MDV MSC TBN 1 / 241N on October 14, which will be canceled due to delay. The scheduled goods will be transported by TPX MAERSK VIRGINIA 241N and TP2 MAERSK EINDHOVEN 241N, with a stop in Shanghai.
The port of departure is Vouton Port and ETD is the TP6 eastbound voyage MAERSK EUREKA / 240N on October 6, which will be canceled due to delay. The scheduled cargo will be transported by TP2 MAERSK EINDHOVEN 241N, calling at Xiamen Port.
Maersk issued a notice, and the upcoming China Golden Week holiday related, in order to balance the network and cope with the expected demand decline, Maersk plans to cancel from Asia to East Africa two voyages:
According to Dafei's schedule, Ocean Alliance Asia-Europe route FAL 7 service, in the 40th and 42nd weeks to implement blank sailing.
source: search air network