a key question is how short the "long tail" of small truck carriers will become as 2023 progresses. Vehicle capacity on U.S. highways has receded after peaking in 2022, but remains plentiful, keeping downward pressure on spot and contract prices. Small trucking companies are exiting the market at a faster rate, but many remain.
There is a huge shortage of U.S. truckers 2022, and the lack of road transport capacity has affected the post-epidemic economic recovery in the United States. In 2023, U.S. freight demand continues to recover, and truck driver hiring is expected to be difficult to improve.
the end of last year, the capacity of large trucking companies decreased slightly, causing the JOC Truck Capacity Index to drop from a peak 93.2 in the second quarter of 2022 to a 91.2 in the previous quarter. But that's the same reading as in the fourth quarter of 2021 and one of the highest in more than a decade. The index is based on the number of end-of-quarter trucks for a group of large state-owned transportation companies, which did not exceed 90 in the period from 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2021.
many large trucking companies are still ordering trucks to replace the old equipment they have been using for the past few years, when supply chain disruptions affected the equipment manufacturing industry.
logistics company Uber freight (Uber Freight) fourth party logistics related data show that: in the platform (contract freight) route guide, the first and second bidding accounted for more than 95% of the volume." This means that the first two carriers in the route guide are receiving cargo almost all the time. Its head of analysis, Matt Harding, said: "This is a clearly overcapacity market, and only when this indicator falls will we have any indication that the market has adjusted" to reach a new balance between supply and demand. "
expect outflow
for much of the past year, big vehicle carriers have been predicting a flood of small fleets as fuel and equipment costs rise, demand weakens and spot rates fall. This outflow will eventually lead to a tightening of truck capacity, reversing the downward trend in truck loading rates, they said.
in the past three years, the wages of truck drivers have increased significantly, and before that, drivers were not paid their due. At present, although this situation is changing, the rising level has weakened and may stagnate for some time in the future. The number of registered operators has increased by 66%, but this does not mean that the growth of truck capacity is close to that figure. Based on an analysis of FMCSA data, the FTR Transportation Intelligence report said that in the last quarter of 2022, the operator experienced a net loss and the authority revoked exceeded the new operating authority granted. However, despite weak business in early 2022, there are still new operators entering the market.
Many of the new trucking companies that enter the market from 2020 to 2022 are owned by truckers who saw the benefits of "going it alone" during the spot market "gold rush" when transaction rates soared in 2021.
Forwardernet.com