On March 21,, the Ministry of Transport issued the "2022 Waterway Transport Market Development and 2023 Market Outlook" (hereinafter referred to as "Market Outlook").
of Waterway Transportation Market Development in 1. 2022
2022, China will coordinate the overall domestic and international situation, coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, coordinate development and security, increase macro-control efforts, cope with the impact of unexpected factors, steadily improve the quality of development, drive China's waterway transport market as a whole stable and good development, different market segments show different characteristics.
(I) the domestic coastal shipping market is generally stable.
1. Dry bulk transport market: the market was generally stable and freight rates fluctuated downward.
by the end of 2022, the country has a total of 2427 coastal provincial dry bulk carriers of more than 10,000 tons and 79.824 million deadweight tons, an increase of 6.5 percent year-on-year.
2022, the coastal bulk transport market is generally stable. Before and after the Spring Festival, the warm winter temperature is high, the electricity consumption of industry and residents is lower than expected, the supply and demand of the transportation market is weak, and the freight rate is low. Since late February, a series of domestic policies to stabilize prices and ensure supply have been introduced, coal supply has stabilized, coal prices have remained within a reasonable range, and freight rates have jumped in the short term, but with the rapid rise in international energy prices, coastal bulk demand has fallen, and market freight rates have returned to the downward channel in March-April. Beginning in May, transport demand gradually picked up, with the arrival of summer, ultra-high temperature weather once pulled up the demand for civil electricity, but in the supply of stable price policy, the long-term agreement to protect the supply of solid landing, downstream coal stocks for a long time to maintain a good range, coastal freight rates after August overall more flat. The annual average of China's coastal (bulk) composite freight index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 1124.52 points, down 13.5 per cent from last year. The index peaked at 1254.16 on March 18, down 22.7 percent from last year's high.
2. Liquid cargo dangerous goods transport market: transport demand is generally stable, capacity supply is relatively stable.
the end of 2022, the country has a total of 1194 coastal inter-provincial transport tankers, 11.422 million dwt, tonnage growth of 2.5 percent year-on-year.
In terms of crude oil transportation, the transportation demand weakened in the first half of the year, especially since March, due to the soaring international oil price, the new crown epidemic and the traditional overhaul season of refineries. In the second half of the year, with the stabilization of oil prices and the gradual recovery of the overall load of refineries, the transportation demand gradually recovered and the annual transportation volume increased. Driven by the increase in oilfield production, the annual transportation volume of marine oil has increased. Pipeline oil due to a single route, the overall volume of transport remained stable. In the whole year, the coastal inter-provincial crude oil transportation volume reached 91 million tons, up 18.2 percent year on year. In terms of refined oil transportation, the first half of the epidemic affected by the social inventory of refined oil rose, the overall weak demand in the transportation market; in the second half of the year by the traditional consumption season and international crude oil prices wide higher impact, market activity increased, transportation demand stabilized and rebounded. In the whole year, the transportation volume of coastal refined oil was about 85 million tons, up about 4.9 percent year on year. Overall, in 2022, the coastal inter-provincial crude oil transportation market will be stable, with refined oil freight rates first depressed and then rising. The average value of the coastal inter-provincial crude oil freight index was 1578 points, up 2.3 percent year-on-year, while the average value of the coastal refined oil freight index was 1058 points, up 0.4 percent year-on-year.
By the end of 2022, there were 287 coastal inter-provincial chemical vessels (including oil and chemical dual-use vessels) with 1.399 million dwt, an increase of 8.5 per cent in tonnage over the same period last year. As my country's chemical production and consumption are still in a period of steady growth, the market demand for coastal bulk liquid chemical ships and water transportation continues to grow. The annual coastal inter-provincial chemical transportation volume is about 40 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 9.6. Coastal inter-provincial chemical ship freight rates were generally stable, market supply and demand were in a tight balance, and freight rates on some routes rose slightly.
By the end of 2022, there were 80 coastal inter-provincial liquefied gas carriers with 288000 dwt, an increase of 8.2 percent year-on-year. The overall demand for liquefied gas carrier transportation remained stable, with 5.28 million tons of coastal liquefied gas transportation completed throughout the year, an increase of 0.06 percent over the same period last year. Coastal inter-provincial LPG carrier transport price level rebounded, the overall balance between supply and demand.
3. Container transport market: capacity increased slightly and freight rates increased year-on-year.
As of the end of 2022, the coastal inter-provincial transportation of more than 700TEU container ships totaled 350, the number of boxes 830000 TEU, the number of boxes increased by 5.4 year-on-year. Affected by the decline in high freight rates in the international container shipping market, some domestic and foreign ships were transferred from the international market to the domestic market, and the domestic market supply was relatively sufficient. The annual domestic trade container freight index overall volatility downward, the first half of the domestic market continued high demand, market freight rates remained strong, the second half of the international market demand downturn, coastal container market freight rates fell, due to the end of China's epidemic prevention policy optimization adjustment, coastal container freight rates in December picked up. In 2022, Xinhua Pan-Asia Shipping China's domestic container freight index averaged 1661 points, up 13.1 percent year-on-year.
4. Passenger transport market: Waterway passenger transport to be restored.
by the end of 2022, there will be 22 inter-provincial ro-ro passenger ships in Bohai Bay with 32961 passenger seats and 3156 parking spaces, and 57 inter-provincial ro-ro passenger ships in Qiongzhou Strait with 51612 passenger seats and 2778 parking spaces.
2022, Bohai Bay inter-provincial rolling passenger transport completed 2.12 million passengers and 1.14 million vehicles, down 20.5 per cent and 12.9 per cent, respectively, compared with the same period last year; Qiongzhou Strait inter-provincial rolling passenger transport completed 11.87 million passengers and 3.72 million vehicles, down 6.3 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively.
(II) inland shipping market: freight volume is rising steadily, passenger traffic needs to be restored.
2022, the demand for inland waterway transportation is generally stable and the growth rate has slowed down. From the perspective of market segments, the dry bulk cargo transportation market has grown steadily, the ship capacity is still oversupply, and the annual freight rate is generally low; the container transportation market has shown a rapid growth trend, and the combined container iron and water transportation volume has increased by more than 60% year-on-year; The bulk liquid dangerous goods transportation market is relatively stable; the inter-provincial passenger transport market is seriously affected by the epidemic, and inter-provincial tourist passenger ships have been suspended for most of the third quarter.
2022, the Yangtze River system provinces and cities completed 6.17 billion tons of waterway freight volume, an increase of 4.5 percent over the same period last year; the cargo throughput of the Yangtze River trunk ports was 3.59 billion tons, an increase of 1.7 percent over the same period last year; and the throughput of the three Gorges Hub was 0.16 billion tons, an increase of 6.1 percent over the same period last year. For the whole year, the Yangtze River Dry Bulk Freight Index averaged 728.4 points, down 4.1 percent year-on-year, while the Container Freight Index averaged 1012.1 points, up 1.9 percent year-on-year.
2022, the Pearl River water system completed 1.39 billion tons of waterway freight volume, down 4.8 percent year-on-year; Cheung Chau hub through the gate freight volume of 0.155 billion tons, an increase of 2.0 percent year-on-year. For the whole year, the average value of the Pearl River Shipping Bulk Freight Index was 1023 points, down 3.2 per cent from the same period last year, while the average value of the Container Freight Index was 894 points, up 1.3 per cent from the same period last year.
the shipping market between the two sides of the (III) Strait is basically stable.
2022, direct sea flights between the two sides of the strait will complete 47.23 million tons of cargo, down 9.9 percent year-on-year. The volume of bulk cargo, liquid chemicals and liquefied gas was 14.78 million tons, 3.6 million tons and 710000 tons respectively, down 12.6 percent, 18.4 percent and 8.2 percent respectively. Container traffic completed 2.298 million TEUs, down 4.8 per cent year-on-year. Cross-strait passenger transport will remain suspended in 2022.
(IV) international shipping market: the impact of the epidemic is obvious, the market volatility.
1. Dry bulk transport: weaker demand, excess capacity and declining freight rates.
2022, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, repeated epidemics, rising inflationary pressures and other factors, the international dry bulk transport market shipping demand is generally weak. According to third-party data, global dry bulk shipping fell by 2.7 percent in 2022, the slowest growth rate since 2010. Capacity growth slowed further, with global dry bulk ship capacity 0.972 billion dwt by the end of 2022, up 2.8 percent from 2021; due to improved congestion at overseas ports and lower demand growth than capacity growth, dry bulk capacity was generally surplus and freight rates fell sharply.
2022, the Far East Dry Bulk (FDI) Composite Index averaged 1522 points, down 21.5 percent year-on-year, the freight index 1362.95 points, down 7.3 percent year-on-year, the rental index 1760.69 points, down 33.4 percent year-on-year, and the Baltic Dry Bulk Index BDI averaged 1934 points, down 34.3 percent year-on-year.
2. Crude oil market: transport demand improved and freight rates rebounded at the bottom.
According to third-party statistics, the global crude oil seaborne volume in 2022 is about 1.953 billion tons, up 5.1 percent year-on-year. In terms of capacity, there were 5574 tankers (over 10,000 tons) and 0.634 billion dwt worldwide at the end of 2022, up 3.5 percent from the beginning of the year; VLCC was 0.273 billion dwt, up 4.3 percent from the beginning of the year. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to changes in the flow of oil trade, an increase in the mileage of crude oil transported from the U.S. Gulf Coast, Brazil and West Africa to Europe, and an increase in the freight rates of Suez and Afra vessels, which has also led to an increase in demand in the VLCC market. Crude oil spot transport market freight rates rose significantly in 2022 and hit a two-year high.
2022, the annual average of China's imported crude oil freight index (CTFI) is 1132 points, up 93.6 percent year-on-year. The average annual freight rate on the Saudi Rastanula to Ningbo (CT1) route was $12.66/tonne, up 96.8 per cent year-on-year.
3. Container market: demand gradually fell, freight rates from high to gradually return to normal.
According to the statistics of third-party agencies in December 2022, the number of global container ships reached 5690 and 25.91 million TEU, with a 4.15 per cent year-on-year increase in capacity. Under the influence of factors such as the overall decline in global container transport demand and the continued growth of effective capacity, international container freight rates will continue to fall from high levels in 2022. In the first quarter, due to overseas port congestion and inventory replenishment demand, market freight rates remained strong. The average value of China's export container freight index in the first quarter was 3444.33 points, up 75.6 percent year-on-year, reaching 3587.91 points on February 11, a record high. Since then, with the relief of congestion in overseas ports, effective capacity continued to be released, and freight rates fluctuated downward. From the third quarter, import demand on the main routes in Europe and the United States was weak, while congestion at overseas ports continued to ease, and freight rates began to accelerate downward.
2022, the annual average of China's export container freight index is 2792.14 points, up 6.8 percent year-on-year.
4. International Cruises: Cruise shipments to and from our ports will continue to be suspended in 2022 due to the impact of the epidemic.
2. Shipping Market Outlook 2023
(I) the domestic shipping market.
1. Coastal dry bulk uncertainty increases and freight rate volatility is expected to be further amplified.
2023, the downward pressure on the world economy will increase and the uncertainty of international market demand will increase. It is expected that the overall cargo of the coastal coal transportation market is more balanced, with the gradual advancement of the "double carbon" policy, the replacement of ships may speed up, the difference in energy consumption between new and old ships appears, the degree of acceptance of freight rates is also gradually alienated, freight rate fluctuations will be magnified.
2. Coastal crude oil transportation demand and freight rates are expected to stabilize, and the recovery momentum of refined oil transportation market demand is obvious.
2023, the external uncertainty of the crude oil market will continue to increase, oil prices are expected to remain high, the main refineries are more active, the coastal crude oil transportation market is stable and improving, the overall supply and demand balance, freight rates are stable. In terms of refined oil transportation, due to the accelerated transformation and upgrading of the refining and chemical industry, the accelerated release of people's travel demand, the demand for gasoline and kerosene showed a steady recovery trend, and the freight rate is expected to rise with the supply and demand situation.
3. The demand for coastal chemicals and liquefied gas transportation continued to grow, and the transportation capacity structure was further optimized.
2023, driven by the commissioning of new coastal refining and chemical projects, the demand for bulk liquid chemicals and liquefied gas transportation is expected to continue to increase. However, with the increasingly reasonable layout of the domestic chemical industry chain and the obvious increase of routes in the region, the overall transportation distance of ships shows a trend of shortening. Subsequently, as the new transportation capacity is gradually put into the market, the market supply and demand are expected to maintain a dynamic balance, the transportation capacity structure will be further optimized, and the freight rate will remain basically stable or the overall demand will drive a moderate increase.
4. Coastal container freight rates will fall.
with the recovery of domestic economic growth, "scattered to collection" and "land to water" continue to promote the development of multimodal transport, it is expected that the demand for coastal container transport will maintain steady growth, in contrast to the slowdown in demand in the international market. It is expected that in 2023, the spillover effect of the international market on domestic coastal container transportation will be reduced, part of the capacity will return to the domestic coastal market from the international market, the overall supply of coastal container ship capacity will increase, and freight rates will fall.
5. The inland water transport market is expected to continue to operate steadily.
2023, the Yangtze River, Pearl River and other inland waterway transport is expected to recover growth, with the overall recovery of the domestic economy, coal, ore, building materials and other bulk commodity transport demand constitutes a stable support; at the same time, the gradual recovery of production and consumption, is expected to further boost the demand for container transport. Passenger transport on the Yangtze River trunk line is expected to return to pre-epidemic levels.
(II) cross-strait shipping market.
2023, it is expected that the transport volume of containers, bulk cargo and bulk liquid dangerous goods between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will be basically the same.
(III) international shipping market.
1. Dry bulk transport market demand growth at a low rate, freight rates or low volatility.
2023, global dry bulk shipping volume is expected to grow at a low rate. Among them, iron ore seaborne volume is relatively stable, coal and grain seaborne volume growth rate has increased. Capacity continues to maintain a low growth trend, but overseas port congestion may further improve, the overall market capacity surplus, the market is cautiously optimistic. Inflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, epidemics, etc. will still pose downside risks to the global economy, and there is still some uncertainty in the market.
2. Tanker transport demand continues to pick up and external uncertainties may lead to increased volatility in freight rates.
2023, global tanker transport demand continues to rebound, capacity orders and deliveries remain at relatively low levels, the degree of excess capacity is further down 3 percentage points from 2022, and the average market freight rate is expected to be better than 2022. At the same time, the global economic slowdown, the "OPEC" production reduction policy, the geopolitical situation and the new international environmental protection regulations will bring greater uncertainty to the tanker transportation market.
3. The overall decline in the container transport market will slow down.
, under the influence of the slowdown of world economic growth and geopolitics, it is expected that the supply and demand fundamentals of the container transportation market will weaken in 2023, and the market freight rate will face downward pressure. According to the forecast of many institutions, the growth rate of transport capacity is higher than the growth rate of demand, and the situation of oversupply is relatively obvious. In 2023, the freight rate of container transportation market may decline, but the decline rate will slow down.
4. International cruise: timely carry out international cruise transport pilot resumption
Source: Ministry of Transport