U.S. truck tonnage rose in March, showing some seasonal strength, but not as strong as expected.
The American Trucking Associations' (ATA) rental truck tonnage index showed a 9.3 percent rise last month from February, climbing from recent lows and reflecting any seasonal adjustment before fleet tonnage actually grew.
The ATA index is dominated by contract freight, and the spot vehicle transportation market has almost no investment.
As shipping tonnage changes, U.S. vehicle demand and contract rates are falling, but shippers' costs for transportation services are not falling as fast.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)PPI data analysis shows the difference between the base rate and the total cost. Trucking companies are trying to fill the revenue gap left by low prices, from internal pickup and delivery to special handling, lift doors on trailers, storage and handling, and other expenses beyond the base rate and fuel surcharge.
For several years, increased surcharge use has been the trend, UPS and FedEx in the parcel field first use, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers and vehicle transport fleet.
Even with seasonal growth, the U.S. freight economy remains weak. Bob Costello, chief economist for the American Transportation Association, said a decline in home construction, lower factory output and weak retail sales had all affected contracted freight tonnage.
However, the truck tonnage index was not as large as expected when compared with the 17.2 per cent month-on-month increase in March 2022 and the 17.4 per cent month-on-month increase in March 2021, resulting in a seasonally adjusted capacity index decline of 5.4 per cent last month, indicating that the decline in freight volume was far from expected, rather than the actual decline in freight volume.
seasonal adjustment is a method to reveal and observe long-term market trends by smoothing seasonal peaks and gullies. However, when the measured data exceeds or falls below expectations, it can mask short-term changes in the market. The same was true in February, for example, when unadjusted real volume fell 4.8 percent, but the seasonally adjusted index rose 0.9 percent. That suggests that in what is typically the weakest month of the year for truck freight, freight tonnage was slightly better than expected.
's seasonally adjusted figure is higher than the unadjusted data from November to February this year, reflecting that truck tonnage, while declining, is still better than expected. The lower-than-expected rise will still encourage those expecting a return to more normal seasonality.
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