In an already expected weak sales season, shippers eager to see a shift from inventory to inventory replenishment may have to wait a long time. Replenishment activities seem to be few and far between. Retailers find it increasingly difficult to predict when consumers will buy what, and they will be cautious about new orders.
Michigan State University (Michigan State University) logistics associate professor Jason Miller (Jason Miller) said in an interview that the 2023 big inventory is far from over, the real replenishment is still far away, the market feels like 2016 occurred in a severe freight recession, it is difficult to see the financial system impact will trigger economic activity.
Consumer spending on personal goods rose 3.6 per cent in April from a year earlier, to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. But that's down from the 6.3 percent increase in spending on goods in April 2022, when many retailers were snapping up goods to the U.S. and building up inventories.
"Despite a significant drop in purchases this spring, seasonal sales lagged behind our plans, causing us to once again experience an inventory glut," said Jonathan Ramsden (Jonathan Ramsden), executive vice president and chief financial officer of Big Lots." As the National Retail Federation (NRF) put it in a recent statement, the "explosive demand" of the past two years is disappearing. Current tepid consumer demand fits a pattern closer to pre-COVID seasonality. This inhibits different modes of freight demand.
Bruce Thorn, president and chief executive of Big Lots, argues that our low-income consumers have been hurt by inflation, low tax rebates and higher interest rates, and their confidence has been shaken by bank failures. Consumers haven't stopped spending, but spending is slowing.
The NRF/Hackett Associates Global Ports Tracker forecast does show that the September retail import year-over-year gap narrowed, but Hackett Associates believe that in 2023 U.S. imports will remain below year-ago levels until consumer inflation falls and excess inventories are reduced.
as Big Lots and other retailers have discovered, properly sizing inventory in this uncertain market is like trying to hit a moving target, and often multiple targets when the ground shakes. The extent of destocking may depend on the type of company and the type of products it sells or transports.
Echo Global Logistics President and COO David Menzel said that U.S. importers not only actively manage inventory, but also actively manage their supply chain, with an absolute emphasis on cost normalization, which is not just about rates, but optimization.
is seeking cost savings in a wide range of areas, including transportation, inventory allocation and optimized omni-channel distribution. This optimization includes the closure of four distribution centers to eliminate excess capacity and reduce costs.
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