DNV Classification Society released its latest version of "Maritime Outlook for 2050" report at Hamburg Maritime Show today. The report's new focus is how to overcome the "ultimate obstacle" of carbon neutral fuel availability.
's "Maritime Outlook for 2050" is one of DNV's "Energy Transformation Outlook" series of annual reports, and this year is the sixth edition. This year's report especially considers the comprehensive key factors such as production, distribution and filling infrastructure that the marine industry must have to realize the carbon neutral fuel transformation.
the report also updates the relevant regulations, drivers, future technologies and cost prospects for shipping decarbonization. The report models two different decarbonization paths, namely, "the current IMO vision target of 2050" and "the target of complete decarbonization of 2050". DNV's model analysis shows a diversified energy portfolio in the future, including fossil fuels and carbon neutral fuels, of which fossil fuels will be gradually eliminated by 2050.
"Today, the world is committed to the sustainable development of decarbonization and the exploration of the best alternative carbon neutral fuel solutions and technologies." Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, chief executive officer of DNV Maritime, said, "No industry can decarbonize alone, so all industries around the world need to make the right choice together. Sustainable energy should be directed to areas that play the greatest role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The ultimate obstacle lies in the availability of carbon neutral fuels. In order to overcome this obstacle, cross-industry cooperation must be used to build supply chains.
"The evaluation of the decarbonization path analysis shows that carbon neutral fuels should be supplied to assist shipping decarbonization within the current decade (2020-2030). By 2030 at the latest, 5% of the fuel used in the shipping industry should come from carbon neutral fuels. This will require substantial investment in ship-end technology and shore infrastructure." Cornut added.
Including major energy and fuel suppliers and ports, it is crucial for all stakeholders to formulate coordinated plans, and corresponding incentives must encourage and support forerunners to participate in the emerging green shipping corridor global network.
The new and expanded shipping fuel portfolio scenario library can be applied to DNV's updated carbon risk management analysis framework to help shipowners find the most efficient and cost-effective fuel strategy. At the same time, in order to promote green transformation and minimize investment risks, maintaining continuous attention to fuel flexibility and energy efficiency improvement is still the key.
in terms of fuel selection, many uncertainties in future fuel prices and availability mean that at least in the short term, it is impossible to clearly identify an optimal choice from the numerous and varied fuel paths-whether it is ammonia, methanol, diesel or methane? Is it from sustainable biomass, renewable electricity or fossil fuel preparation using carbon capture? The report also looks at the conditions under which each fuel path will be more dominant to facilitate its adoption. DNV's enhanced greenhouse gas emission reduction path model analysis also measures the general investment required for the implementation of various new fuel supply chains, fuel technologies and energy-saving measures from the dimension of the world fleet.
DNV's chief maritime consultant and lead author of the "Maritime Outlook for 2050" report Eirik Ovrum said: "Our analysis and research also further shows that shipowners need to take and ensure confident and stable long-term decarbonization transformation decisions in existing fleet and new shipbuilding project investments."
"Based on three types of fuel families, we simulate and analyze the availability of sustainable biomass to produce biofuels, renewable electricity to produce electro-chemical fuels, and the use of fossil fuels to produce blue fuels in combination with carbon capture and storage technology. We also explored the changes in various specific fuel types and conducted a detailed analysis of the key factors affecting the differences in fuel costs within each fuel family. Based on this, we have studied and analyzed 24 different decarbonization scenarios."
fuel transition has begun. At present, 5.5% of operating ships (in total tons) and 33% of new shipbuilding orders (in total tons) use alternative fuels (so far LNG is the mainstay). The future market will rely on diversified energy sources and closely integrate the energy markets, energy industries and production in all regions of the world, as well as the availability and price of energy sources.
DNV forecast shows that under the scenario path of "full decarbonization target in 2050", the annual investment in ship-end technology between 2022 and 2050 will be about US $8 billion to US $28 billion (depending on which type of fuel gets the fastest application). The annual investment in building an onshore fuel supply chain by 2050 is about 30 billion to 90 billion US dollars.
"It is estimated that the annual order volume of ships will be about 2,000 by 2030, but there is still no fuel solution that can be called a panacea." Cornut said. He concluded: "In response to this uncertainty, the new version of the" Maritime Outlook for 2050 "report provides reference expert opinions and forward-looking guidelines for smart solutions to support ships to maintain business throughout the life cycle. Competitiveness and compliance operations, while providing strong support for the green decarbonization transformation of the shipping industry from the persistent demand and concern for safety."
Source: Shipping