transatlantic routes remained stable throughout the year, transatlantic trade has largely replaced trans-pacific trade after container spot freight rates faced expectations of a long-term decline.
the market has now turned across the board, and operators are now increasing capacity to gain a share of North Atlantic trade by reducing other services.
Ellerman to deploy its 5060 TEU SC Mara, a Panamanian tanker, has started a new trans-Atlantic route after unloading Asian imports at Nordic ports in mid-December. Its projected schedule will be Antwerp, Rotterdam, Tilbury, New York, Wilmington and Jacksonville.
Ocean Alliance partners began to deploy vessels 14000 TEU on both sides of the Atlantic, replacing vessels 8500 TEU with vessels 10000 TEU. Evergreen-chartered 13656 TEU Tampa will be the largest vessel ever deployed on trade when it Triumph to join the alliance's TAT2 ring on December 9.
But as airlines divert a wave of excess capacity from the collapse of other East-West trade markets, the stability of transatlantic routes is about to be tested.
According to data Analysis by the Sea-Intelligence Maritime, the incoming capacity will exceed the first-range demand across the Atlantic, which has experienced an average monthly decline of 3.4 percent in the past three months.
The interest rate index shows that as of mid-December, the average transatlantic spot exchange rate rose by about 14% year-on-year, far lower than the 80% decline in the Asian-US west coast exchange rate and the 88% decline in the Asian-Nordic spot exchange rate.
the transatlantic balance of supply and demand is about to change, Sea-Intelligence pointed out. The analyst's data from December 2022 to February 2023 show that the capacity growth plan soared from mid-December and reached a temporary peak near New Year's Eve on the Nordic and Mediterranean trade routes to North America.
"Transatlantic is not immune to global trade, so I also expect it to soften," said Rolf Habben Jansen, chief executive of Hapu-Lot. The utilization rate of most of the called ports is still very high, so it is not easy to increase capacity significantly, "he added. "I also don't think it is necessary, because congestion on the east coast of the United States and Europe is easing, so there will be enough capacity to carry demand.
Clarkson's data show that congestion in Europe, China and the west coast of the United States has decreased throughout the third quarter, but the east coast of the United States has increased by 15% compared with the second quarter.
Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, called the transatlantic "the last trading station" and the benchmark interest rate platform showed that interest rates were still up 15% year-on-year, 4.5 times higher than the level in December 2019. But he warned that any drop in demand would see a major correction in rate levels as airlines redeploy spare trans-Pacific capacity to the Atlantic.