Since March this year, the demand for trucking in the United States has dropped sharply. According to data, in the first quarter of this year, the transportation cost of trucks per kilometer in the United States dropped from 2.78 US dollars to the 2.23 United States, down 55 cents, down about 22 cents from the same period last year. Such a development trend can not help but cause concern.
The question raised by trucking companies, brokers and shippers for 2023 is not how low trucking rates will be, but when they will start to rise. A consensus is emerging that the U.S. spot vehicle transportation rate will bottom out sometime in the first quarter, followed by the contract vehicle rate in the third quarter.
Arrive, a third-party logistics provider, expects that after some fluctuations in the quarter due to year-end demand, the vehicle spot rate will continue to decline in the first quarter, and then remain relatively stable. The gap between contract and spot truck prices will gradually narrow throughout the year. The 3PL forecast calls for national contract rates to fall to an average of $2.22 per British Rio by the third quarter of 2023. If the U.S. economy has "normalized," trucking rates are expected to rise by the end of the third quarter of next year as the year-end holiday approaches.
Coyote Logistics expects shippers to experience troughs and highs in 2023. "I think 2023 may be a two-and-a-half story," Coyote's chief solutions officer Nick Shroeger told the conference. The first half is likely to be relatively weak and the second half is likely to pick up.
may be because freight demand has not declined with spot market pricing. Truck tonnage continues to increase year by year, and industrial demand is elastic. "The balance of supply and demand in the US trucking market has eased substantially this year, so freight rates have leveled off and will weaken further in the coming months," Tim Denoyer, senior analyst at ACT Research, said in a report on the November Kas Freight Index released Tuesday.
"When capacity hits bottom, how long will it take us to get back to balance? This is usually a lag of about 1/4," said Nick Shroeger, Coyote's chief solutions officer.
in this case, "we said it was possible for us to climb and return to balance in the third quarter," Corey, vice president of pricing and purchasing strategy at Coyote, said on a conference call Klujsza. "This puts the second half of the 12-month contract in doubt.
"Shippers must be aware of the market conditions now and what may happen with the volatility in the third and fourth quarters of next year," Klujsza said.
Cass Freight Index did see shipper spending increase by 1.8% in November after falling by 4.9% in October. Cass inferred that the interest rate rose by 3.7% in November, reversing the continuous downward trend in October. The data is related to changes in the US long-distance vehicle producer price index, which rose in October and November after months of decline.
Forwardernet.com