National Retail Federation (NRF) supply chain and customs policy vice president Jonathan Gold (Jonathan Gold) in the latest global port tracker (GPT) said this year is expected to retail sales will increase, consumers are still spending, but did not see the past two years of explosive demand.
Consumer spending in the coming months is to be affected in part by high inflation, while retailers are conservative in placing purchase orders with Asian factories due to bloated inventories, GPT said. The GPT is compiled using data and forecasts for 12 major U.
this year, as the lag effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike gradually appears, the bankruptcy of U.S. enterprises is fierce, and the U.S. retail industry is facing great challenges.. According to relevant data from S & P Global Markets, the number of bankruptcy filings in the United States in the first quarter was 183, "more than in any comparable period in the past 12 years". Among them, 71 companies in the United States filed for bankruptcy protection in March, up from 58 in February and more than double the 33 in the same period last year. Among them, the consumer goods industry is so far this year, the most bankrupt enterprises in the industry.
GPT forecasts that imports in May will be 23.5 percent lower than in May 2022, and then the year-on-year decline will slow in the summer and autumn. The projected declines for June, July, August and September are 15.9 percent, 7.9 percent, 9.9 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively.
U.S. retailers said this year's peak shipping season imports will be lower than in 2022, but close to pre-epidemic more typical peaks.
US imports from Asia totaled 1.71 million TEUs in August 2022 and 1.48 million TEUs in September, according to PIERS. If the NRF's forecast for a 9.9 percent and 3.4 percent decline in imports in August and September this year remains unchanged, the total imports in August and September will be 1.54 million teu and 1.43 million teu respectively. This compares to 1.45 million TEUs before the August 2019 epidemic and 1.4 million TEUs in September 2019.
The NRF also noted that while most U.S. ports experienced significant reductions in congestion in 2021-22, ports are still grappling with trucker shortages, while year-long West Coast labor contract negotiations have added a degree of uncertainty.
Ben Hackett, founder of the Hackett Associates, said, "Since the end of last year, most ports have seen year-on-year declines in imports. The decline in China's exports highlights the slowdown in demand for consumer goods. Until inflation and excess inventory are reduced, imports will remain below recent levels." The company publishes monthly GPT with NRF.
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