In July, U.S. imports from Asia rose for the fifth consecutive month to 1.46 million TEUs, the highest since September, raising the possibility that this fall's eastbound trans-Pacific trade will resume year-on-year import growth.

According to data Standard & Poor's global PIERS, imports in July increased by more than 35% from the 2023 low of 1.08 million TEU set in February, the same as in March. Although total imports from Asia fell 10.1 percent in July from July 2022, year-on-year growth in imports could resume in September or October as the peak import season enters the country. The 1.46 million TEUs imported in Asia in July were close to the 1.48 million TEUs imported in September last year, surpassing the 1.4 million TEUs imported in October 2022. "

The National Retail Federation NRF, in its August Global Port Tracker GPT, predicted that all U.S. imports in October would fall by only 1% from October 2022. The GPT also forecasts that November's imports will be 8 percent higher than November 2022, and December's imports will be 10.7 percent higher than a year earlier.

But PIERS' latest data also clearly shows that West Coast's share of imports from Asia has been affected by 13 months of contentious contract negotiations between the International Terminal and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and terminal employers, with an increasing number of retailers moving merchandise imports from the West Coast, which only ended in mid-June with a preliminary contract agreement.

NRF supply chain and customs policy vice president Jonathan Gold Jonathan Gold said retailers will wait until the contract between ILWU and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) is "signed and approved" before moving Asian imports back to the West Coast.

The share of Asian imports from the West Coast of the United States fell to 53.1 per cent in July, down from 59.3 per cent in June and the lowest level since November last year. When onshore contract negotiations begin in May 2022, the share will be 60.4 percent.

As imports increased, spot prices also rose, and as of August 17, from the end of June to the West Coast, spot prices more than doubled to 2,137.50 per FEU.

The reduction in West Coast discretionary cargo is good for ports along the East Coast and Gulf Coast. PIERS data show that the East Coast's share of Asian imports was 37.7 percent in July, up from 32.9 percent in June and 33.3 percent in May 2022, when the West Coast engagement talks began. The Gulf Coast's share last month was 8.9 percent, up from June's 7.5 percent and May 2022's 6.1 percent.

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