On August 1,, Asia-Nordic Airlines raised its spot freight rates, pushing average short-term freight rates above contract prices for the first time in a year. The sudden recovery in spot prices for shippers to delay the signing of new long-term contracts with carriers sounded the "alarm".
Rate benchmark platform Xeneta's data report shows that since August 17, 2022, spot prices have been lower than long-term prices. Airlines announced a series of August 1 various freight rate (FAK) increases, raising the freight rate per FEU by US $500 to US $1765 per FEU. The spot exchange rate slightly slowed down in August to US $1629/FEU on Wednesday.
Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said the increase was the first month-on-month increase in the average number of new contracts signed since April. The average price of new long-term contracts signed within a month is no longer falling, albeit by a modest amount, but the average rate of new long-term contracts from the Far East to Northern Europe has risen by $30/FEU, suggesting that rates have bottomed out and will soon begin to follow spot rates.
spot prices are currently at a 15% premium to the average contract price of $1418/FEU. On August 15, 2022, the spot market fell below the contract price, with a long-term price of $9100/FEU and a spot price of $9039/FEU.
The latest data from the Container Trade Statistics (CTS) showed that Asia-Northern Europe freight volume rose 3.1 percent year-on-year to 915,284 TEUs in June, while Asia to the East Mediterranean and Black Sea freight volume rose 39 percent to 297,000 TEUs. Asia-West Mediterranean freight volume rose 21% in the month to 279,908 TEUs.
In the fourth quarter of, airlines may increase the number of blank flights on trade routes from Asia to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean to ease the injection of a large amount of new capacity. According to data Analysis by Sea-Intelligence Maritime, the current available capacity on the Asia-Northern Europe route will be reduced by 2.7 per cent in September and 6.2 per cent in October; the available capacity on the Asia-Mediterranean route will be reduced by 5.5 per cent in September and 5.8 per cent in October.
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